Overview
- NESO estimates the UK would save about £14 billion a year by forgoing the 2050 target, roughly £500 per household and about 0.4% of GDP.
- The analysis contrasts a net-zero-aligned pathway with mass heat pumps, expanded offshore wind and nuclear against a slower route that retains widespread gas use and misses net zero.
- Both pathways show total energy-related costs falling from the 2030s, with the net-zero route becoming the cheaper option only after about 2046.
- The premium is highly sensitive to gas prices, averaging about £19 billion a year if gas is cheaper than forecast and around £5 billion with higher gas prices, with cleaner power offering more protection from price shocks.
- NESO says the scenarios are illustrative, exclude carbon tax transfers and some local benefits; DESNZ rejects the figures while Conservative leaders amplify them to oppose strict 2050 commitments.