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NESC Warns Ireland of 'Vicious Downward Cycle' as Births Fall

NESC urges early planning to avert fiscal strain from falling births during a shift toward an older population.

Overview

  • Ireland’s annual births have declined from about 77,000 in 2010 to roughly 54,000 in 2024, with 13,665 births in Q1 2025, down 20.5% on Q1 2015, according to CSO data cited by NESC.
  • NESC projects the population will peak in roughly three decades, marking a decisive move toward ageing that will shape living standards, labour markets and public finances.
  • The council flags a potential workforce decline within 10 years, warning of pressure on tax revenues and the capacity to fund infrastructure and care systems.
  • The report calls for ring‑fenced funds, pension reform, proactive migration policy, stronger family supports, balanced regional development and higher labour‑force participation.
  • NESC notes immigration can cushion decline, highlighting that the arrival of Ukrainian children in 2022 briefly slowed the drop in child numbers, and it urges better demographic data and modelling.