Overview

• Partisan surveys taken around Oct. 8–10 show Abigail Spanberger still leading Winsome Earle-Sears by 2–4 points in Trafalgar (47.7%–45.1%) and Cygnal (49.2%–45.2%), while Public Policy Polling (52%–43%) and a new CNU Wason Center poll (52%–42%) report larger advantages.
• In the attorney general race, Trafalgar now has incumbent Jason Miyares at 48.9% and Democrat Jay Jones at 43.1% following publication of Jones’ violent 2022 texts about shooting GOP lawmaker Todd Gilbert.
• During the Oct. 9 Norfolk State debate, Earle-Sears pressed Spanberger on whether she would pull her endorsement of Jones and on transgender access in schools, and Spanberger declined to say she would withdraw support and emphasized local decision-making.
• Advertising in the governor’s race has turned sharply negative, with Republicans tying Spanberger to Jones and focusing on parental-rights themes, as Democrats highlight economic concerns and the toll of the federal shutdown.
• Analysts note education messages carry less statewide force than in 2021 even as a Nexstar/Emerson poll finds 50% of Virginians consider transgender issues important, with early voting ongoing ahead of the Nov. 4 election.