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Nebius Shares Slide as Q3 Miss, ATM Plan Clash With Sold-Out AI Capacity

Investors now weigh dilution risk against proof of heavy demand from hyperscaler deals.

Overview

  • Nebius posted Q3 revenue of $146.1 million, missing estimates, widened its net loss to about $119.6 million, and cut full‑year guidance to $500–$550 million.
  • The stock fell more than 21% for the week, closing Friday at $85.54 after continued post‑earnings declines.
  • The company set up an at‑the‑market program to sell up to 25 million Class A shares, prompting dilution concerns.
  • Management said all current data‑center capacity is sold out and disclosed a roughly $3 billion, five‑year Meta deal alongside a large Microsoft agreement reported at $17–$19 billion.
  • Nebius is targeting over 2.5 GW of contracted power and a $7–$9 billion annualized revenue run rate by end‑2026, while analysts kept bullish targets including Northland at $206 and D.A. Davidson at $150.