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Nebius Heads Into Q3 Earnings With Microsoft Contract Doubts and Heavy Dilution

The report will determine whether big-client exposure and recent fundraises can support the company’s rapid-growth valuation.

Overview

  • Nebius will release its Q3 results before markets open on Nov. 12 and investors expect the company to lay out revenue, losses, and forward guidance that could reshape the stock.
  • Analysts compiled by Yahoo Finance and Barchart expect about $907 million in Q3 revenue and a loss near $0.61 per share while some sell-side forecasts call for revenue of roughly $3.35 billion this year and more than $12.2 billion next year.
  • Reports say Microsoft is rethinking how it uses neocloud providers and Barchart flagged that Microsoft may not renew current agreements, a development that puts concentrated revenue from large customers at material risk.
  • Nebius has raised large sums of capital, selling over $2 billion in Q2 and signaling similar fundraising into Q3, which pushed outstanding shares toward 238 million and heightened investor concerns about dilution and refinancing pressure.
  • Market signals point to downside risk: the stock trades near $141, about 54% below its high, short interest sits around 20%, options show a put-to-call bias and a low price mark near $113, and industry headwinds like rising GPU costs and Gartner warnings raise the prospect of impairments.