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Nebius Draws Bullish Calls on Hyperscaler Deals as Capacity Limits Slow Revenue

Bullish research highlights signed demand that exceeds available power.

Overview

  • Nebius secured multi‑year contracts with Microsoft and Meta that authors say are constrained by power availability rather than customer demand.
  • Third‑quarter revenue rose 355% year over year to $146 million, with the adjusted EBITDA loss narrowing to about $5.2 million and core infrastructure margins approaching 19%.
  • Capital expenditures reached $955 million in Q3, and management lifted full‑year CapEx guidance to $5 billion while targeting 2.5 GW of contracted power by 2026.
  • The company expects 800 MW to 1 GW of capacity to be fully connected by 2026, and it reported a $4 billion sales pipeline that jumped 70% quarter over quarter.
  • Independent analyses contend revenue recognition will track energization timelines, with ARR discussed as potentially reaching $7–9 billion by 2026 and recent share weakness framed as an opportunity.