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2w ago

Nawrocki leads in disputed Polish presidential vote as both contenders claim victory

Partial returns show Nawrocki with 51% to 49% over Trzaskowski in a vote set to determine whether Poland deepens EU ties or reduces its Ukraine backing.

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Rafal Trzaskowski, candidat à la présidence, aux côtés du Premier ministre polonais Donald Tusk, à Varsovie, Pologne, le 25 mai 2025.
Le candidat à la présidence polonaise Karol Nawrocki, soutenu par le principal parti d’opposition Droit et Justice (PiS), sa femme Marta Nawrocka, ses fils Antoni et Daniel, à Varsovie, Pologne, le 1er juin 2025.

Overview

  • Both candidates claimed victory after exit polls and early returns on June 1 left the race effectively tied, with official tallies resuming Monday, June 3.
  • An Ipsos estimate based on 90% of precincts gives Nawrocki 51% against Trzaskowski’s 49%, reversing an earlier projection that had Trzaskowski narrowly ahead.
  • A Nawrocki presidency would likely strengthen the Law and Justice party, deploy presidential vetoes against Tusk’s legislative agenda and could trigger early parliamentary elections.
  • Trzaskowski’s win would empower Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition to pursue progressive reforms, including loosening abortion restrictions and enacting civil unions for same-sex couples.
  • Poland’s foreign policy pivot hinges on the result, with Nawrocki opposing Ukraine’s NATO membership and refugee benefits versus Trzaskowski’s pro-EU and Kyiv-support stance.