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Nature Study Links 213 Major Heatwaves to Emissions From 180 Fossil Fuel and Cement Producers

The analysis quantifies corporate shares of warming and heat risk, offering new evidence for courts evaluating climate liability.

Image
FILE - Nicole Brown wipes sweat from her face while setting up her beverage stand near the National Mall on July 22, 2022, in Washington. (AP Photo/Nathan Howard, File)
A man splashes his face at a fountain at Trafalgar Square in London in July 2022.
A group of tourists huddled under a tree whilst visiting the Acropolis, Athens, Greece. Credit: Dimitris Aspiotis / Alamy Stock Photo

Overview

  • Researchers found the 180 carbon majors collectively account for roughly 57–60% of historical CO2 since 1850 and about half of the increase in heatwave intensity compared with pre‑industrial conditions.
  • Heatwaves studied became about 20 times more likely in 2000–2009 and 200 times more likely in 2010–2019, with the median intensity in 2010–2019 rising 1.68 C, including 0.47 C attributable to the 14 largest producers.
  • The 14 biggest carbon majors were each linked to more than 50 heatwaves that would have been virtually impossible without their emissions, and even the smallest entity analyzed was linked to 16 such events.
  • Out of 213 events from 2000–2023, 55 were deemed at least 10,000 times more likely than in a pre‑industrial climate, including the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome, which was about 2.3 C hotter and associated with 619 deaths in British Columbia.
  • The peer‑reviewed work uses full value‑chain attribution that industry groups dispute and relies on disaster records that undercount parts of Africa and South America, limitations experts say likely mean the true impacts are higher.