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Nature Review Finds Abrupt, Interlinked Antarctic Shifts With Global Consequences

Scientists conclude that deep cuts to greenhouse-gas emissions are the only lever to reduce the risk of long-lasting, high-impact Antarctic change.

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The world's largest iceberg, named A23a, is seen in Antarctica, January 14, 2024, in this picture obtained from social media.  Rob Suisted - http://naturespic.com/via REUTERS /File Photo

Overview

  • A multinational state-of-knowledge review in Nature reports a regime shift in Antarctic sea ice, with average retreat since 2014 of about 120 kilometers from the coast.
  • The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is assessed as at severe risk of collapse, a scenario that would raise global sea levels by more than three meters.
  • Researchers find signs of a rapid slowdown in the Antarctic Overturning Circulation, threatening nutrient upwelling and the ocean’s capacity to absorb carbon.
  • Wildlife impacts are already documented, including repeated emperor penguin breeding failures and stress on krill and phytoplankton from warming and acidification.
  • Separate research in Geophysical Research Letters attributes the recent Arctic sea-ice slowdown to internal variability that could persist 5–10 years, with models showing faster losses often follow such pauses.