Nature Retracts Influential Climate‑Economy Study Over Major Data, Method Flaws

Nature’s retraction note says the authors agreed the required changes were too substantial for a correction and that they will resubmit a revised paper for peer review. Critiques published in August identified anomalies in Uzbekistan’s economic data and statistical issues, with recalculations lowering the 2100 global GDP loss from about 62% to roughly 23%. The authors’ revised analysis reports smaller mid‑century impacts and wider uncertainty, including a shift in projected income reduction from 19% to 17% after 26 years, which has not yet been peer reviewed. The now‑withdrawn study was widely cited by policy and financial bodies such as the NGFS, OECD, World Bank and the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, influencing central‑bank scenario work. Critics, including Christof Schötz, say key methodological problems remain unresolved, particularly treatment of spatial correlations, leaving the original results unreliable for policy use.