Overview

• A NATO report estimates 31 of 32 members will reach the two‑percent threshold this year, with Iceland excluded because it has no armed forces.
• NATO has not published a 2025 figure for Germany, which says it will meet the mark but still needs Bundestag approval of its budget.
• The 2025 projections combine already executed outlays with planned spending, bringing countries such as Spain, Italy and Belgium up to the benchmark.
• Poland is forecast to lead the alliance at 4.48% of GDP, followed by Lithuania at 4.0%, Estonia at 3.38% and the United States at 3.22%.
• NATO will track progress toward the new 2032 goals through annual reporting and peer pressure rather than legal enforcement.