Overview

• New NATO estimates project 31 of 32 members will meet the 2% of GDP benchmark this year, with Iceland excluded because it has no armed forces.
• Germany’s 2025 figure is not yet published as the federal budget awaits parliamentary approval, though Berlin says it intends to hit the 2% mark.
• Allies agreed in June to aim for 3.5% of GDP on defense plus 1.5% for defense‑relevant infrastructure by 2032, and only three members are on track to reach 3.5% this year.
• Combined allied outlays are nearing 1.6 trillion, with European members and Canada rising to an estimated $559 billion in 2025 as growth slows compared with last year.
• The United States remains the largest absolute spender at about $845 billion, while Poland leads by GDP share at 4.48%, followed by Lithuania at 4.0%, Estonia at 3.38%, and the U.S. at 3.22%.