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NATO Projects All Members Will Hit 2% Defense Spending in 2025, With Germany’s Formal Estimate Still Pending

The estimate reflects realized spending plus planned budgets, signaling a baseline before tougher 2032 capability targets.

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Overview

  • A Brussels report estimates 31 of 32 members will meet the 2% benchmark in 2025, excluding Iceland, which has no armed forces.
  • The figures draw on already made and planned national outlays, bringing Spain, Italy and Belgium up to the threshold.
  • Germany has pledged to spend at least 2% of GDP in 2025, but NATO has not published a figure while Berlin’s budget awaits parliamentary approval.
  • At the June summit in The Hague, allies set higher goals for 2032 of at least 3.5% of GDP for defense and 1.5% for defense-relevant infrastructure.
  • Poland leads projected shares at 4.48% of GDP, followed by Lithuania at 4.0% and Estonia at 3.38%, with the United States at 3.22%.