Overview
- Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service said in a Sept. 24 risk assessment that Russia is likely to step up hybrid operations and that there is a "low but growing" chance of a limited military attack on NATO-bordering states.
- NATO leaders responded by publicly reassuring citizens, boosting intelligence-sharing and tightening contingency planning to manage sabotage, drone incidents and other non‑conventional threats.
- Recent episodes including an attempted drone strike at Germany’s Leipzig/Halle airport, a Russian ship firing flares toward a Danish helicopter and multiple airspace breaches near Poland and Romania are being treated as deliberate tests of allied defenses.
- Some allied officials, notably Czech President Petr Pavel and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, have urged firmer kinetic responses such as shooting down deliberate airspace violators, while NATO leaders stress restraint to avoid uncontrolled escalation.
- The alliance is also reshaping its posture by handing NATO’s Norfolk command to a European and pressing Europe to take more responsibility as officials warn of strained ammunition stocks and the need to speed weapons production.