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NATO Expert Outlines Hypothetical 2028 Russian Strike on Estonia

Carlo Masala presents a conditional scenario that links a weakened post‑Ukraine order to a Russian hybrid strike probing NATO resolve.

Overview

  • Masala tells Newsweek the risk grows if a post‑Ukraine deal leaves Russia holding gains and erodes NATO’s deterrent effect.
  • He links President Trump's suggestion to "call it where they are" to a weakened Ukrainian army that could invite further Russian moves.
  • The scenario projects a surprise March 2028 assault seizing Narva within hours and targeting the island of Hiiumaa.
  • Hybrid methods—disinformation, covert operatives, and engineered border incidents—are described as tools to mask intent and speed the operation.
  • He cites claims of oppression of Russian‑speaking minorities as the likely pretext and warns Moscow could leverage other crises to divide allied focus.