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Nate Silver Names Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as Leading 2028 Democratic Contender

Silver and Galen Druke cite her high favorability, grassroots momentum, and evolving economic messaging but note uncertainty over whether she will run.

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A person holds up a New York magazine at the ‘Fighting Oligarchy’ tour with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) at Grand Park on April 12, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. An estimated 36,000 people attended the rally which also saw Neil Young and Joan Baez perform.
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Overview

  • Pollster Nate Silver and analyst Galen Druke identify Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the most likely Democratic nominee for the 2028 presidential election, pending her decision to run.
  • A recent Yale University poll shows Ocasio-Cortez with the highest net favorability among Democrats, bolstering her position as a leading contender.
  • Ocasio-Cortez’s national 'Fight Oligarchy' tour with Bernie Sanders has drawn tens of thousands, reflecting strong grassroots enthusiasm for her potential candidacy.
  • Analysts highlight her shift toward an economic-focused message, distancing herself from earlier controversial positions like abolishing ICE.
  • Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is named as the second most likely Democratic contender, emphasizing the competitive dynamics within the party.