Overview
- The U.S. Space Force and NASA place the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory’s reentry at about 3:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 4, with a large uncertainty window of roughly plus or minus 11 hours as trackers update the path.
- A private rescue craft called LINK, built and flown by Katalyst under a roughly $30 million rapid contract, suffered attitude and control failures after its July launch and never captured or reboosted Swift, ending the last viable rescue attempt.
- Most of the 1,450 kg spacecraft is expected to burn up on reentry, but denser parts such as the six reaction wheels, mirrors, and tungsten components could survive and fall somewhere between 20.6° south and 20.6° north latitude.
- NASA and the Space Force estimate the chance of surviving debris causing human injury is very low, about one in 2,100, and tracking updates in the final hours will narrow the reentry time and ground track.
- Swift leaves a large scientific archive after roughly 22 years of service — more than 2,000 gamma‑ray bursts, about 1,400 supernovas and data cited in some 7,000 papers — and its loss, plus LINK’s failure, is driving NASA’s push to industry solutions such as a formal Request for Information for Hubble through Nov. 30.