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NASA Team Weighs Nuclear Option to Avert Possible 2032 Lunar Strike by Asteroid 2024 YR4

A new preprint argues disruption should be the focus because unknown mass and tight timelines make a deflection mission unreliable and could raise debris risks to satellites.

An illustration of an asteroid near Earth.
Image

Overview

  • Updated analyses rule out an Earth impact but put the asteroid’s lunar strike probability near 4% in late December 2032, based on JWST data and NASA’s CNEOS.
  • Researchers warn a lunar impact could loft regolith that drives micrometeoroid flux up to 1,000 times background for days, threatening spacecraft and crew in orbit.
  • The study says the best reconnaissance window is in 2028, yet broad mass estimates (roughly 51–711 million kg) leave too much uncertainty for a safe, precise deflection.
  • Mission options center on breakup: a kinetic fragmentation concept with launch windows from April 2030 to April 2032, or a nuclear disruption launching between late 2029 and late 2031.
  • The authors calculate that a roughly megaton‑class device could disrupt the ~60‑meter object, while emphasizing the plan is an unreviewed preprint and not NASA policy.