Overview
- Under the study’s scenario, about 39–40% of Hubble’s images and up to roughly 96% for SPHEREx, ARRAKIHS and China’s Xuntian would be marred by satellite trails, with some exposures containing dozens to more than 90 streaks.
- The projection draws on current industry filings that could drive low‑Earth‑orbit populations from about 15,000 satellites today toward roughly 560,000 by the late 2030s, though the eventual total remains uncertain.
- Researchers warn that bright streaks can mask or mimic transient and moving targets, complicating searches for hazardous asteroids and short‑lived phenomena important to discovery science.
- Proposed mitigations include darker, less reflective spacecraft, sharing precise ephemerides, adjusting exposure strategies, and placing satellites below telescope altitudes, but each option carries trade‑offs such as increased infrared emission or possible ozone impacts.
- ESA’s ARRAKIHS team disputes the high impact estimate for their mission, arguing its final orientation should reduce crossings to about 1%, and telescopes far from Earth like the James Webb at L2 are not expected to face this contamination.