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NASA Study Finds Decades-Long Solar Decline Reversed, Raising Space-Weather Risks

A peer-reviewed NASA study points to rising solar output since 2008 that heightens space‑weather risk.

Overview

  • Analysis of long-running OMNIWeb Plus data from ACE and Wind shows steady increases from 2008 to 2025 in solar wind speed (~6%), density (~26%), temperature (~29%), dynamic pressure (~34%), and interplanetary magnetic field strength (~31%).
  • The findings indicate the Sun is recovering from a roughly 20-year decline rather than entering a Maunder- or Dalton-like minimum.
  • Researchers warn the upward trend raises the chance of disruptive solar storms that can affect satellites, communications, GPS, power grids, and astronaut safety.
  • The results, led by Jamie Jasinski of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, were published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, providing a peer-reviewed basis for the reassessment of recent solar behavior.
  • NASA and NOAA plan launches no earlier than Sept. 23 of IMAP, the Carruthers Geocorona Observatory, and SWFO‑L1 to enhance space‑weather observations as scientists note the long-term drivers of these changes remain uncertain.