Overview

• After a site visit to SpaceX’s Starbase, NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel judged the Human Landing System schedule “significantly challenged” and potentially years late for a mid‑2027 Moon landing.
• Panelists cited unproven in‑orbit cryogenic propellant transfer as the pivotal risk, noting required milestones like Starship Version 3, tanker and depot demos, and Raptor V3 reliability have yet to be achieved.
• Recent Starship testing produced mixed results, with an August 26 flight achieving key objectives after earlier failures, and an uncrewed lunar demo still required before any crewed landing attempt.
• NASA officials said Artemis II— a 10‑day crewed lunar‑flyby to validate SLS/Orion systems— is now targeting a launch window that opens February 5, 2026, with the rocket stacked and a wet dress rehearsal planned.
• Experts and former NASA leaders warn continued HLS delays could allow China to achieve a crewed lunar landing first, while Blue Origin’s lander is contracted for later missions and not available for Artemis III.