Overview

• After a site visit to SpaceX’s Starbase, NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel concluded the Human Landing System schedule is significantly challenged and could be years late for a mid‑2027 landing.
• Panelists flagged in‑orbit cryogenic propellant transfer as a critical, unproven requirement for Starship’s lunar mission profile, noting the technique has never been demonstrated at the needed scale.
• Key milestones still outstanding include flights of Starship Version 3, reliable performance of upgraded Raptor engines, and successful demonstrations of tanker and depot configurations.
• NASA currently lacks a ready alternative for Artemis III, with Blue Origin’s lander aimed at later missions and Axiom Space’s lunar suit timeline also described as aggressive.
• Experts warn continued delays could let China reach the Moon first, while the panel also noted potential resource tension inside SpaceX between Starlink deployment and HLS development.