Overview

• NASA’s revised trajectory analysis based on James Webb and ground observations sets the chance of 2024 YR4 striking the Moon on December 22, 2032 at 4.3%.
• Additional measurements have ruled out any collision with Earth, ending earlier concerns about a potential 3.1% impact risk.
• At up to 220 feet wide, the asteroid could hit with energy equal to 6.5 megatons of TNT and produce a crater nearly one kilometre across.
• Simulations predict over 100 million kilograms of lunar debris could be ejected, with about 10% potentially drifting into low Earth orbit.
• Researchers warn that a strike on the Moon’s trailing hemisphere would accelerate ejecta delivery to satellites and offer a unique opportunity to study crater formation by a known asteroid.