NASA Revises Asteroid YR4 Collision Risk to Record 3.1%

The asteroid, estimated to be 40-90 meters wide, has a low but unprecedented chance of striking Earth on December 22, 2032, with scientists stressing the estimate is preliminary.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth in 2032, the highest probability ever recorded for a monitored asteroid.
The asteroid, measuring between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, could cause significant localized damage, such as city destruction or tsunamis, if it impacts Earth.
Experts emphasize that the current collision risk is based on early data and is likely to be revised as more observations are conducted in the coming months.
Global space agencies are exploring potential deflection strategies, including spacecraft impacts, gravitational tractors, and other advanced techniques, should the threat become imminent.
The asteroid will become temporarily unobservable from Earth later this year but is expected to be studied more closely when it reappears in 2028.