Overview

• NASA confirmed on June 5 that asteroid 2024 YR4 now carries a 4.3% chance of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032.
• Its brief peak of a 3.1% chance of impacting Earth in February 2025 has been ruled out through precise orbital tracking.
• Analysts warn that, lacking a lunar atmosphere to slow it down, the 174- to 220-foot space rock would hit at full velocity and carve a permanent crater hundreds of metres wide.
• Experts say a Moon impact would not change the satellite’s orbit or endanger Earth, with any debris unlikely to survive passage through our atmosphere.
• The asteroid has moved beyond telescope range and will not be observable again until it returns to view in 2028 for further trajectory updates.