Overview

• NASA revised its calculations on June 17, giving asteroid 2024 YR4 a 4.3% chance of hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032.
• James Webb Space Telescope observations in April and May sharpened YR4’s trajectory and confirmed there is no longer any risk of an Earth impact.
• At an estimated 174–220 feet in diameter, the asteroid could unleash 6.5 megatons of energy and carve a nearly one-kilometer crater on the lunar surface.
• Impact modeling indicates over 100 million kilograms of lunar debris could be ejected, with up to 10% potentially falling toward Earth and endangering satellites and spacecraft.
• Researchers warn that a strike on the Moon’s trailing edge would send the most ejecta into low Earth orbit, amplifying hazards for orbiting assets.