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2mo ago

NASA Monitors 'City-Killer' Asteroid with 3.1% Chance of Earth Impact in 2032

Asteroid 2024 YR4 poses the highest recorded collision risk, though experts anticipate probabilities will likely drop with further observations.

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The University of Hawaii's asteroid impact alert system captured the motion of asteroid 2024 YR4 over the course of one hour on December 27.
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Overview

  • Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024, currently has a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, making it the most hazardous asteroid ever recorded by modern forecasting.
  • The asteroid, estimated to be 40-90 meters wide, is classified as a 'city-killer' capable of significant localized destruction but not a global catastrophe.
  • Astronomers expect the impact probability to fluctuate and likely decrease as more data is collected, with the James Webb Space Telescope set to observe the asteroid in March.
  • Potential deflection strategies under consideration include spacecraft impact, gravitational tractors, and even nuclear options, though experts stress the need for precision to avoid unintended consequences.
  • International agencies and scientists emphasize that there is ample time to act, with seven years to refine risk assessments and develop mitigation plans if necessary.