Overview

• NASA’s CNEOS now assesses a negligible chance of Earth impact and roughly a 4% probability of a Moon strike in December 2032.
• The new arXiv analysis concludes deflection is impractical given the poorly constrained mass of the ~60-meter asteroid, making targeted nudges too risky without prior measurements.
• Researchers identify a reconnaissance launch opportunity in late 2028 to characterize mass and structure, though the schedule is considered exceptionally tight.
• Disruption concepts are outlined as more feasible on current timelines, with kinetic breakup needing roughly five to seven years of development and nuclear launch windows spanning late 2029 to late 2031.
• Proposed nuclear options range from deploying two autonomous 100-kiloton devices to calculations indicating a 1-megaton yield could reliably disrupt the object, while models warn a lunar impact could eject over 100 million kg of debris and briefly boost micrometeoroid flux near Earth by up to about 1,000 times.