Overview

• An international team including NASA specialists modeled kinetic deflection and nuclear disruption and set mission windows for each approach, with nuclear launches possible in late 2029–2032 and kinetic launches from April 2030 to April 2032.
• Researchers propose making a final mitigation decision after the object’s 2028 close approach when tracking will sharpen risk estimates and targeting options.
• Experts quoted by TASS contend current capability and safety readiness are insufficient for a nuclear intercept and advocate trajectory alteration, citing NASA’s DART impact as a relevant precedent.
• Estimates of 2024 YR4’s size vary from roughly 55 to about 70 meters, affecting calculations of the force required for any intervention.
• CNN, citing Cornell scientists, reports a potential lunar strike could eject up to about 100,000 tonnes of material that may endanger satellites and other spacecraft in Earth orbit.