Overview

• NASA confirms it is developing operational options to deflect or fragment 2024 YR4, escalating planetary defense planning beyond monitoring.
• Refined orbit analyses cut Earth-impact probability to roughly 0.001% while placing the chance of a December 2032 Moon strike near 4%.
• Researchers warn a lunar impact could loft regolith and boost the micrometeoroid flux in low Earth orbit by up to about 1,000 times, imperiling satellites, stations and crewed missions.
• Studies outline launch windows that place a possible nuclear standoff mission between 2029 and 2031 and kinetic impactor missions between 2030 and 2032.
• Agencies stress large uncertainties in the asteroid’s mass, density and fragmentation behavior and cite lessons from the 2023 CX1 breakup to prioritize continued tracking and reconnaissance.