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NASA and IBM Release Surya, Open-Source AI to Forecast Solar Eruptions

Early tests suggest up to two-hour eruption warnings, offering extra lead time to protect satellites and crews.

Overview

  • The model was trained on more than a decade of multi-wavelength Solar Dynamics Observatory imagery totaling about 250 terabytes.
  • IBM reports experiments in which Surya anticipated some events roughly two hours ahead, which it says could double typical warning horizons, though performance varies.
  • NASA and IBM made the system openly available, alongside SuryaBench datasets and benchmarks to encourage community testing and development.
  • Solar physicists, including ETH Zürich’s Louise Harra, warn that predicting the exact timing and intensity of eruptions remains challenging and limits operational certainty.
  • Planned work focuses on fine-tuning the model and incorporating additional data to validate results and improve real-world forecasting utility.