Particle.news

Download on the App Store

NASA and IBM Release Surya, Open-Source AI for Two-Hour Solar Flare Forecasts

Open access lets researchers test short-term solar forecasts to refine warnings for vulnerable infrastructure.

Image
© IBM
Image

Overview

  • Surya is a 366 million‑parameter foundation model trained on nine years of high‑resolution Solar Dynamics Observatory imagery using custom architectures to handle unusually large data.
  • Early tests report about a 16% gain in next‑day flare classification and accurate visual predictions of the Sun’s appearance roughly two hours ahead.
  • The model, training data and benchmarks are publicly available on Hugging Face, GitHub and IBM’s TerraTorch, with an open SuryaBench dataset for evaluation.
  • IBM and NASA say the system can pinpoint likely flare location and intensity, forecast emerging active regions within 24 hours, and estimate solar wind speed and upper‑atmosphere UV effects.
  • Experts note that reliable Earth‑impact warnings require validation on the current solar cycle and inputs such as interplanetary magnetic field measurements, with further fine‑tuning and operational integration planned.