Overview

• Researchers say an Earth impact is effectively ruled out, but a lunar hit could eject material that threatens satellites, the ISS and future crewed missions in Earth orbit.
• The team favors breaking up the ≈60‑meter object rather than attempting a classical deflection because the asteroid’s mass and structure remain uncertain and schedule margins are tight.
• A reconnaissance mission would ideally launch in late 2028, leaving only about three years for spacecraft development and preparation.
• Proposed disruption options include kinetic fragmentation with launch windows extending to April 2032 and a nuclear standoff approach launching between late 2029 and the end of 2031.
• For the standoff concept, the study estimates about a one‑megaton device detonated roughly 85 meters from the asteroid with a separate rendezvous spacecraft to monitor the event, though funding constraints and the study’s preliminary status make any mission uncertain.