Overview

• CNEOS now estimates roughly a 4% chance that 2024 YR4 could impact the Moon on December 22, 2032, with Earth impact effectively ruled out.
• Researchers warn a lunar strike could eject tens to hundreds of millions of kilograms of debris, briefly multiplying micrometeoroid flux and elevating risks to satellites and crewed spacecraft.
• The object is about 60 meters across, but its mass is highly uncertain, so the paper says a precise deflection would require a dedicated reconnaissance mission best launched in late 2028.
• The study outlines disruption options with tight timelines, including kinetic disruption with launch opportunities roughly 2030–2032 and nuclear disruption windows from late 2029 to late 2031.
• Calculations indicate a 1‑megaton nuclear device could disrupt the asteroid, and the authors also describe a concept using two 100‑kiloton devices, though no mission has been authorized.