Overview

• Follow-up observations cut Earth-impact odds to near zero, with current estimates indicating roughly a 4% chance of a Moon impact on December 22, 2032.
• Researchers outline mission concepts that start with a reconnaissance opportunity in 2028 to better pin down the asteroid’s properties and trajectory.
• Kinetic disruption launches are assessed as feasible between April 2030 and April 2032, while nuclear disruption windows run from late 2029 to late 2031.
• Study modeling suggests a lunar strike could loft debris that boosts micrometeoroid flux in low Earth orbit by up to 1,000 times background for days, threatening satellites and crewed spacecraft.
• Large mass uncertainty—estimated from about 51 million to over 711 million kilograms—complicates precise deflection planning, and the authors stress the nuclear option carries technical, legal, and potential redirection risks and remains only a proposal.