Overview
- The NAO reports an estimated £9.5 billion in benefit overpayments in 2024–25, or 3.3% of spending, with Universal Credit driving the largest losses and Pension Credit recording a 10.3% overpayment rate.
- The Public Authorities (Fraud, Error and Recovery) Bill has cleared the Commons and is under Lords review, proposing DWP access to bank‑account indicators and the power to withdraw funds directly after notice and checks of at least three months of statements.
- Initial bank‑data checks would cover Universal Credit, Employment and Support Allowance and Pension Credit, with scope to extend to benefits such as Housing Benefit, Child Benefit, Jobseeker’s Allowance and possibly PIP according to expert commentary.
- DWP use of a single machine‑learning model is generating referrals, with people above state pension age nearly 50 times more likely to be investigated, raising concerns about bias and over‑referral highlighted by the NAO.
- Ministers point to human decision‑making, notice periods and an independent overseer, with projected multi‑year savings up to £1.5 billion, while rights groups warn of privacy intrusions and harm to vulnerable claimants.