Overview

• In September the Bank of Russia cut the key rate by 1 percentage point to 17%, a smaller move than many traders anticipated.
• Early‑September money‑market pricing implied a faster path of cuts along or even below the lower bound of the bank’s July rate forecast.
• A sharp pickup in lending, led by corporate credit in July and August, was cited as a key reason to moderate the pace of easing.
• The government’s 2026–2028 draft proposes raising VAT to 22% while keeping a 10% preferential rate for socially significant goods.
• The central bank views the budget as disinflationary and, stressing the value of a predictable and balanced fiscal stance, said the new clarity will be weighed at the October rate meeting.