Overview
- Polymarket data show odds on Nicolás Maduro leaving office spiked in the hours before President Trump announced his capture early on January 3.
- An anonymous account that joined last month placed four Venezuela-related bets totaling about $32,000 to $34,000 and collected roughly $436,760.
- Representative Ritchie Torres introduced a bill to bar elected officials and federal employees from betting on markets when they have material nonpublic information.
- Polymarket has not commented on the trades, and the CFTC, which cleared the platform to relaunch U.S. operations after an acquisition in September, has not confirmed any review.
- The trader’s identity remains unknown, other users also saw sizable gains, and legal experts note misuse of government information could be prosecutable though no allegations have been made.