Overview
- An anonymous account that joined Polymarket in December wagered $32,537 that Nicolás Maduro would be out by Jan. 31, then collected roughly $436,000 after the U.S. operation announced early Jan. 3.
- Polymarket data show implied odds of Maduro’s removal climbed from about 6.5% on Jan. 2 to 11% before midnight, then surged in the hours preceding President Trump’s announcement.
- Chainalysis said the bettor withdrew the winnings in Solana via a major U.S. exchange without signs of laundering, but the person’s identity and any link to classified information remain unestablished.
- The wallet also placed smaller, related wagers on U.S. action in Venezuela, with the largest and final positions exceeding $14,000 late Friday night before the raid.
- Rep. Ritchie Torres plans legislation to bar government employees from betting when they hold material nonpublic information, as experts note regulators have announced no case and prosecutions in prediction markets are legally challenging; Polymarket previously paid a CFTC penalty in 2022 and later secured a U.S. approval path.