Overview
- BEA’s delayed September report showed core PCE up 0.2% on the month and 2.8% year over year, with headline PCE up 0.3% monthly and 2.8% annually.
- Personal income rose 0.4% and nominal spending increased 0.3%, while inflation-adjusted spending was flat and August real spending was revised lower.
- Stocks edged higher after the release as CME FedWatch implied roughly an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction at the Dec. 9–10 meeting.
- A 43-day government shutdown postponed the data, leaving policymakers without October or November PCE and facing mixed labor signals including three-year-low jobless claims, elevated announced layoffs, and an ADP-reported drop in private payrolls.
- Consumer sentiment ticked up to 53.3 in early December, even as tariff-related goods costs and some services categories kept price pressures in focus for Fed officials.