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Mutated H3N2 Variant Fuels Early Flu Surge Across Europe as Cases Climb and Hospitals Strain

Health agencies urge high-risk groups to get vaccinated due to moderate protection from current shots.

Overview

  • Germany’s RKI estimates about five million people had a new acute respiratory illness in the first week of 2026, with influenza accounting for over 40% of cases and most recent samples showing A(H3N2) Subclade K.
  • Italy’s ISS logged roughly 800,000 flu cases in a single week, and hospitals report overcrowding with patients treated in corridors, as experts caution the peak has not yet arrived.
  • Authorities in Saxony report six influenza-related deaths so far in 2026, bringing the regional season total to 22, while Thuringia confirms two deaths, with victims predominantly older than 67.
  • The ECDC estimates current seasonal vaccines are about 52–57% effective against H3N2, and Germany’s Stiko recommends vaccination for older adults, pregnant people, those with chronic conditions, care-home residents and healthcare workers.
  • Surveillance indicates infections across all age groups with a high share in small children and schoolchildren, and some clinics report operational strain, including a German practice temporarily closing as most doctors fell ill.