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Musk Says Optimus Will Account for 80% of Tesla’s Value Within Five Years as Robotics Moves to Center Stage

The shift comes as revenue declines, sharpening investor focus on execution.

Overview

  • Tesla published a newly updated master plan that, for the first time, explicitly centers humanoid robots and states the company is bringing AI into the physical world.
  • Near-term milestones include building 5,000 Optimus units in 2025 on a pilot line in Fremont and unveiling Optimus 3 prototypes by year‑end.
  • Elon Musk has offered a rough estimate that external deliveries of Optimus could begin in the second half of 2026.
  • Tesla also targets scaling Optimus production to about one million units annually within five years, a goal presented as aspirational.
  • The push toward robotics follows weaker auto results, with Q2 2025 revenue down 16% year over year and global vehicle deliveries off about 13% in the first half, including a 40% July drop in Europe reported by local outlets.