Overview

• Tesla published Master Plan Part IV on X, shifting emphasis to AI, robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot under the banner of “sustainable abundance.”
• Elon Musk said the “biggest factors” are scaling Full Self-Driving and Optimus and posted that roughly 80% of Tesla’s value will come from Optimus, while pledging to add details to the plan.
• Optimus is not commercially available, with reported delays and the June departure of program lead Milan Kovac, and Musk’s targets for new prototypes by year-end and scaling next year remain forward-looking.
• Skepticism persists as Kalshi betting markets assign about a 40% probability to an Optimus launch before 2027 and multiple outlets criticized the plan for lacking measurable specifics.
• The pivot comes as vehicle deliveries fall, including a 40% drop in the EU in July and a 13% global decline in the first half of 2025, and Tesla’s video also teased Cyber SUV mini models without confirming a product.