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Musk Downplays Nvidia’s Alpamayo After CES Debut, Says Real FSD Rival Is Years Away

He argues the real hurdle is solving rare on‑road edge cases to exceed human safety.

Overview

  • Nvidia unveiled its Alpamayo autonomous driving stack at CES 2026, pairing new AI models with Vera Rubin automotive chipsets.
  • Elon Musk said Alpamayo could create competitive pressure on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving in about five to six years, and possibly longer.
  • Musk cautioned that reaching near‑human performance is relatively straightforward but mastering the long tail of rare scenarios will take several years.
  • He described broad distribution as “super hard” and estimated roughly nine months before Nvidia’s stack could be operational at scale.
  • Tesla community posts compared Alpamayo to FSD’s approach, Ashok Elluswamy echoed Musk’s remarks, and Mercedes-Benz plans to ship vehicles using Nvidia driver‑assist technology this year.