Overview

• The Cemop Summer Barometer, presented Oct. 1, estimates the PP at 36.1% and 18 seats in the Regional Assembly.
• Vox climbs to roughly 27.9% and 13 seats, moving ahead of the PSOE, which holds about 25.8% and 12 seats, while Podemos/IU remains on 5.6% and two seats.
• Compared with 2023, the PP falls 7.2 points and three seats, as the PSOE’s vote share is largely unchanged but it drops one seat.
• Cemop researchers say Vox has attracted about 37,000 former PP voters over the past two years and point to July incidents in Torre Pacheco and tensions in Jumilla as key drivers.
• The figures suggest the PP would struggle to govern alone and increase Vox’s leverage, as the PP emphasized its first-place standing, Vox questioned the polling, and Podemos warned the trend rewards anti-immigrant rhetoric.