Overview

• The seat-by-seat model was run by PLMR with Electoral Calculus using responses from 7,449 adults collected September 10–18.
• Other projected totals include Liberal Democrats on 42 seats, SNP on 41, Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party on 13, Greens on six and Plaid Cymru on five.
• The analysis flags potential defeats for senior Labour figures such as Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Bridget Phillipson and Ed Miliband, with Kemi Badenoch and several high-profile Conservatives also listed as vulnerable.
• More than a third of Labour voters told pollsters they would vote Conservative to stop Reform UK, a level of tactical intent that could significantly reduce Reform’s modeled seat count.
• Poll data cite voter priorities led by the economy and cost of living, followed by immigration and border control, with the NHS ranking third.