Overview
- The Migration Policy Institute published its analysis on Oct. 22, 2026 and calculated about 980,000 deportations by July 31, 2026, with a central estimate of 790,000 to 1.9 million total departures depending on how short stays and border turnbacks are counted.
- MPI’s tally counts roughly 170,000 voluntary departures and shows most people removed had no record of a serious criminal conviction, with only about 20% overall having any conviction and 28% for those in the U.S. two years or more.
- The White House and DHS have promoted a figure above 3 million departures and said about 1.2 million were deported or removed, but they have not produced the detailed underlying data needed to reconcile that claim with independent estimates.
- Researchers built the MPI estimate from FOIA-released records, Mexican returnee census data and other public sources because DHS stopped regularly publishing consolidated deportation and removal statistics in January 2025.
- The numbers matter for policy and people: enforcement is higher than 2021–2024 but below early-2000s peaks, the rise in interior arrests and voluntary departures affects migrants’ legal options and families, and ongoing lawsuits and data gaps could shape oversight and future funding debates.