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MP Materials Rallies on Upgrade as DoD-Backed Saudi Refinery Plan Advances

Investors are focusing on government guarantees that support new refining and magnet output.

Overview

  • Shares rose about 12% for the week after BMO upgraded the stock to buy and set a $75 price target.
  • The Pentagon invested roughly $400 million in July, becoming the largest shareholder at about 15% with a 10-year magnet offtake and an NdPr price floor of $110 per kilogram.
  • MP and the DoD will hold a combined 49% stake in a new joint venture with Ma’aden to build a rare-earth refinery in Saudi Arabia.
  • Apple agreed to a $500 million partnership that includes a $200 million prepayment, with U.S.-made magnet deliveries from Fort Worth slated to begin in 2027.
  • Near-term results show strain after halting concentrate shipments to China, with a third-quarter loss and no concentrate revenue, and the strategy carries execution, regulatory, and political risks.