Overview
- The U.S.–Iran 60‑day memorandum of understanding expired on Monday, Aug. 17, without a permanent deal, and President Trump said he would not extend the truce while warning Oman against helping Iran.
- U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright disclosed that roughly 9 million barrels a day crossed the Strait of Hormuz in a recent seven‑day span, a flow analysts say has been sustained by a clandestine shuttle operation that transfers barrels onto tankers off Oman.
- Market observers and reporting say the covert 'dark' shuttle has kept Brent roughly in an $80–$90 range by replacing much of pre‑war traffic, but exact volumes are opaque because vessels run transponders off and ship movements are hidden.
- The shuttle depends on continued military tolerance, insurers underwriting elevated risks and producers accepting losses, and it has already seen attacks on vessels and casualties reported by ADNOC, highlighting how quickly the buffer could collapse.
- Iran says it has reached an understanding with Oman on a transit map that is being finalised, U.S. officials reject arrangements they view as ceding control of Hormuz, and Tehran has warned it may shift to a 'fully offensive' posture if diplomacy fails.