Overview
- A YouGov poll of 2,202 eligible voters, published Sunday, found just 23 percent believe the Union–SPD government will last until the 2029 federal election.
- Thirteen percent of respondents expect the coalition to collapse this year and 44 percent expect it to end within two years while 20 percent gave no answer.
- Majorities inside both camps doubt the government’s longevity, with 53 percent of Union supporters and 46 percent of SPD supporters predicting a premature breakup.
- The poll follows heavy September state election losses for both coalition parties and strong AfD gains, pressure that has intensified disputes over reforms and party strategy.
- Visible leadership strain, including Chancellor Friedrich Merz saying his patience with the SPD is exhausted, leaves the government likely to continue only as a fragile, compromise-driven administration unless one side forces a decisive rupture.